Australia’s January labour force data was better than most expected, with the unemployment rate holding steady just below 4.1% after falling sharply in December.
Early-year volatility in labour force data in recent years, however, suggests some caution may be warranted in not overinterpreting recent labour force data.
It has been floated that a potential reason for that volatility after the pandemic was because of relatively large spikes in the number of non-employed future job starters early in the year. These are people waiting to start a job but counted as either unemployed or outside the labour force. Indeed, the unemployment rate rose in January in each of 2023, 2024 and 2025 by more than 0.1ppts before falling thereafter.
Helpfully, the ABS again published analysis on monthly “job attachment” as it has alongside January labour force data since 2023.
Our focus here is to gauge whether changes in the number of future job starters, particularly around the start of the year, have temporarily influenced reported employment and unemployment.
