Aussie Monthly CPI Preview
All eyes on housing
Australia’s May CPI will be released on Wednesday, 25 June.
This release can be used in conjunction with the April CPI to nowcast a very good estimate of the Q2 CPI, including on an underlying basis. The RBA’s May SMP had pencilled in a trimmed mean inflation forecast of a little more than +0.6% q/q for Q2.
About 68% of the CPI basket by weight is price updated in May, with several services categories measured in the mid-month of the quarter. Notably, domestic market services categories with a combined CPI weight of ~14% are updated in May (compared with ~2% in April).
We expect year-ended headline inflation to have remained at +2.4% y/y in May.
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