Aussie Monthly CPI Preview

Watching for further services disinflation

Australia’s February CPI will be released next Wednesday, 26 March.

Nearly 73% of the CPI basket by weight is price updated in February, compared with less than 70% in January.

We expect year-ended headline inflation to have remained at +2.5% y/y in February. In monthly terms, we expect the CPI to have risen +0.1% m/m in February (it’s a seasonally weak month).

The size of the seasonal fall in travel & accommodation prices in February will be important in determining the actual outcome. In contrast, annual price rises for education services are expected to have been large, though smaller than last year. CPI electricity prices are also likely to have continued rising, including because the $1000 state government subsidy for Queensland households will have kept being used up.

We emphasise the importance of underlying measures. Evidence from the NAB business survey and Melbourne Institute inflation gauge suggests that underlying inflation remained around the long-run average in the early months of 2025.