Australian Labour Market

What does the RBA do with the odd June labour force report

Australia’s labour market conditions have been relatively resilient over the past year, but question marks have persisted about whether that outperformance can be sustained against the backdrop of typically-deteriorating labour market conditions elsewhere.

The weak June labour force report - with the unemployment rate rising 0.2ppts in the month - could be a sign that Australia’s labour market outperformance is waning.

But it’s one data release and it’s known as the monthly lottery for a reason.

Firstly, since the monthly labour force release began in 1978, the monthly change in the unemployment rate has, on average, been at least 0.2ppts in 1 in every 4 reports.

Secondly, there is some weird stuff under the hood in the recent labour force report(s).

In particular, 15-24 year olds contributed significantly to the rise in aggregate unemployment in both June and over the June quarter.