Australia’s labour market conditions have been relatively resilient over the past year, but question marks have persisted about whether that outperformance can be sustained against the backdrop of typically-deteriorating labour market conditions elsewhere.
The weak June labour force report - with the unemployment rate rising 0.2ppts in the month - could be a sign that Australia’s labour market outperformance is waning.
But it’s one data release and it’s known as the monthly lottery for a reason.
Firstly, since the monthly labour force release began in 1978, the monthly change in the unemployment rate has, on average, been at least 0.2ppts in 1 in every 4 reports.
Secondly, there is some weird stuff under the hood in the recent labour force report(s).
In particular, 15-24 year olds contributed significantly to the rise in aggregate unemployment in both June and over the June quarter.
