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Australia (final) Q3 CPI Preview

Signal versus noise?

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Antipodean Macro
Oct 22, 2025
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Australia’s Q3 CPI will be released next Wednesday, 29 October.

We have made some tweaks to our preliminary CPI preview (available here).

But the key takeaway is the same: underlying inflation appears to have been strong in Q3 and well above the RBA’s August SMP assumption.

This could make for a spicy RBA Board meeting (3-4 November) given the September labour force release was very soft.

Tomorrow’s Q3 NAB business survey will provide a timely update on Australian firms’ views on the availability of labour which has proven to be a reliable guide to underlying labour market conditions over time.

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