Australia’s Q3 CPI will be released on 29 October, just a few days prior to the RBA Board meeting on 3-4 November.
Today’s monthly CPI for August - see here for our analysis - provided important inputs to sharpen our nowcast for Q3 headline and trimmed mean CPI inflation.
Underlying inflation appears to have been strong in Q3 and well above the RBA’s August SMP assumption.
Unless labour market conditions deteriorate noticeably over the next couple of months, a rate cut this year is almost off the table. The initial release of the complete monthly CPI on 26 November for the month of October will make things even trickier (see our view here).
